So it's the largest single item, driving one third of the deficit, but he was an idiot for claiming it is the biggest single thing driving the deficit? I didn't read the article, but what are you guys arguing about, the words "the one thing"?
Christ...
Can ANYONE in here read and actually THINK about what is being said?
Krugman didn't say that anticipated increases in health care costs are "is the
biggest single thing driving the deficit." He said it is "the
ONE thing, driving the increasing deficit."
And contrary to Nick's lame excuse that I'm "picking up a word or two and make a federal case out of it, ignoring the point."
That
IS - and was - Krugman's point: That the increasing U.S. deficit projections are
ONLY driven by anticipated increases in health care costs.
Again, his ENTIRE AGENDA was to a) promote a Keynesian economic approach and b) promote the adoption of the health care overhaul.
So, I'm not "nit-picking." It was KRUGMAN, who nit-picked, saying that anticipated rises in health care costs are the "[/b]ONE[/b] thing" we need to be concerned about. Clearly trying to dismiss everything else.
Hard to say I'm picking on that one word, when his use of that word is his ENTIRE PREMISE, isn't it?
Even the CBO - in predicting lower deficits in the next few years attributes only a small portion of that anticipated reduction to reduced health care costs. Instead, the budget office projected that annual deficits will fall by 2014
as the economy recovers, citing that a growing economy means higher federal revenue and lower spending for unemployment benefits and other programs.
Also, health care costs don't necessarily drive "one third of the deficit." In the first place, there's wide disparity about exactly how much of the Federal
budget they occupy. And it changes every year. The most generous estimates are that those costs could reach as high as 1/3 of the budget. They could be significantly lower.
In addition, their overall impact on the
deficit (not the
budget) should take offsets into account.
In other words: Military spending has no offsets. If we spend $664 billion on military, there is no (or very little) offset. We don't make any (or very little) money on having or producing our military operations. It's all deficit.
But when we spend $740 billion on Medicare and Medicaid, a good deal of that is offset by direct payments into the fund. It's not all deficit financed (although it's been mismanaged enough that soon it probably will be - if they don't just shut it down).
ALL of this (and more) is stuff that Krugman just skated right by, while trying to jam his: "Listen to me, don't worry about ANYTHING ELSE, just pass health care reform and the deficit - which is ONLY health care costs - will go away" message.
But some people...
...yes, I'm looking at you guys...
... don't really pay attention and THINK about what is ACTUALLY being said - especially if what is being said sounds like what they already think or want to believe. They just go: "Hey, that sounds right!" without thinking critically about the issue.
Bottom line: if you think Krugman is right that anticipated increases in the deficit are driven by "one thing: increased health care costs," then let's just watch.
We now have a new health care plan that we were told would REDUCE health care costs, and the deficit, directly. White House Budget Director Peter Orszag argued that the estimates of the savings from the healthcare bill would reduce deficits by well over $143 billion (which, incidentally, is a tiny, tiny fraction of our overall deficit of $1.3
trillion this year - is any of this sinking in yet? No?...) in the first decade and by more in the second decade.
So, let's see if these "reduced health care costs" will really be "the ONE THING," driving our
reduced deficit, over the next few years.
My prediction: Not likely (in other words: Krugman was lying).